Republican Pessimism Will Doom Texas
I mentioned in my piece yesterday that it was a great feat of Texas voters to oust disgraced (now former) politician Dan Crenshaw. Today, we will take a slightly more pessimistic approach and discuss the issue with voter turnout in this recent primary election. I have been in Microsoft Excel crunching the numbers as I am a nerd, and the ~100,000 primary voter lead for the Democrats gets even worse when you analyze the historical differences in voter turnout within primaries versus the general election for Republicans and Democrats.
It should not surprise you to learn that the primary election has significantly less voter turnout than the general election across the board in every single state in the Union. The primary election for the most part is for the more involved, more invested and more researched voters. The primary election also tends to have a significantly older demographic than the general election as a lot of younger folks must prioritize working for a barely affordable lifestyle above voting in a primary. I enjoy the primary election for numerous reasons, but my favorite reason is to see the more invested folks be able to make their voices heard. That has happened with Crenshaw and with Brandon Herrera forcing a primary (which is absurd that Herrera has to go to a runoff election).
Let's forget for a moment that the Democrats had a larger voter turnout for the primary election. I have heard some RINOs cope with some tired jokes of "yeah well Republicans have jobs and they don't" which is no longer true, poverty and unemployment or underemployment is about the only bipartisan thing left in the country. Over 100,000 fewer Republicans voted in this primary compared to the last and about 600,000 fewer than in 2016. The Democrats comparatively gained over A MILLION primary voters compared to the last. Their primary voters increased 134% since the last primary! To address another cope, a 134% increase in primary voters cannot simply be attributed to illegal immigration or rigging the election, there are other factors in play here. Alright, ready for the real statistic that is the most alarming thing you've heard all day? On average, Republicans have a 2.518X increase in general election voters compared to the primary. Democrats have an average of a 3.35X increase comparatively. If you base the general election results solely off these averages, Republicans will lose the general election by over TWO MILLION VOTES. Mind you, these statistics are based on under 100 data points, so it isn't exactly an exhaustive survey of the past and I'm surely not pretending to accurately predict the future, this is merely an illustration of how dire the situation is.
In addition to simply going by the numbers, the Republican party has suffered infighting with some nasty politics. The party is split over frustration from the Epstein files, strikes on foreign nations, and an all but declared war with Iran. I know a significant number of Republicans or former Republicans who have taken the nihilistic stance of not voting or in some cases even voting Democrat to prove a point. While I wholeheartedly disagree with this stance, these are not stupid people (at least the ones I know) who hold these opinions, far from it. The number of voters who abstained from voting for Republicans running unopposed is the wildest I have seen in my life. The Democrats do not have this issue. I have not heard of a single Democrat who was upset Jasmine Crockett lost and are going to stay away from the voting booth in the general election. I certainly do not know of a Democrat who is voting Republican due to frustration with their own party. If you know of one, please let me know, I would like to interview them. The Democrats are strengthened to an absurd level by a mutually shared mission: defeating Republicans. It is my opinion that we have stirred the hornet's nest without making any improvements of our own. Worse yet, we have decreased our voter participation and alienated formerly strong party allies.
I have been amazed at the incredibly casual attitude Republican leadership and pundits have taken toward this matter. We should be shouting from the rooftops that we need Republican votes, that we need Republican participation and that we need some semblance of a party unity. Incumbents should be promising changes, strong leadership, a return to traditional moral values and an emphasis on being a party focused on freedom and prosperity. Showcasing strength and pretending to be unphased by losing ground has not been working and it is showing clearly in these numbers. Will it take Texas falling to wake up politicians? I don't want to say we need to "change" because that isn't a word which is commonly associated with Conservatives. I think the change has already happened and we need to change back. However we steered the ship, we have steered it in the wrong direction, and the people are tired and it is being expressed on social media, in private conversations, and at the voting booths now.
Now, that was a ton of negativity, and I never like to end a piece on a negative note. Let's see all we can do to solve this issue I've identified. The Primary Election is over (unless you are voting in a runoff), so it is time to support the party. Don't like the candidate that won? That's fine, I hope you showcased your displeasure in their politics by voting against them in the primary, donating funds to the Republican who ran against them and maybe even sending them a message detailing all the reasons you dislike their politics or even them as a person.
The primary does more than you can possibly imagine behind the scenes to shape political power grabs. For example, in Tom Green County, Drew Darby had 1,999 undervotes (an undervote is when voters select fewer than the maximum allowed options). Drew Darby ran unopposed in the primary, which means nearly 2,000 people refused to cast their vote for him. This signals to potential candidates who may be on the fence about the viability of running and also to political power brokers and donors that there is weakness that could be exploited.
Make no mistake, if you stay at home for the general election, the Democrats will win. The Democrats winning will not change how Texas Republicans behave in office, it will do the exact opposite. I believe should Texas lose seats to Democrats in the General Election, they will blame the Democrats, they will blame voter fraud, they will blame immigration, they will blame refuges from California. The one thing they will not do is look in the mirror and evaluate how they have failed their constituents and how they can improve. They will go back to their multi-section ranches, kick their feet up, count their money and beat their chest about how they were an elected official.
Meanwhile, your State will be burnt to the ground by the horrific policies the Democrats will enact because you were too emotional to vote in a strategic manner. Good, solid Republicans are running for office and they are winning. Maybe not this election, but the tide is turning and the day is coming soon. We must plant the seeds so we may enjoy the crop, and if the crop is displeasing to us this season, we must get after it again next season until we have a good crop. After that, we keep working and keep working. The one thing we can never do: give up and give into the horrible nihilistic principle of not voting.
Texas still has all the potential in the world. It is my home, and I will continue to fight for it. I may not always agree completely with my representatives, I intend to run against my representatives at some point, but I will not vote Democrat. I refuse to give into the pressure of turning against hope and allowing our state to fall and neither should you.